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Sayed Forecast
 

METALS START ON WEAK FOOTING, LOOKING VULNERABLE AGAIN

2017 April - May

Base metals are expected to rally as the dollar remains at its lowest since Q4 of last year. However, almost everyone is waiting for what comes out of OPEC decisions, investors are being cautious ahead as higher oil means increased costs for miners. In the Middle East, during the Holy Month of Ra

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BASE METAL OUTLOOK

2017 Jan - Feb

The year 2016 ended with surging prices seemingly brought forth by political uncertainties as supply/demand balances, currency movements and interest rates could not be linked to this upward trend. However, there are doubts about sustainability this year as higher prices could steer the increase

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AN ERA OF UNCERTAINTY: VOLATILITY IN THE BASE METAL MARKET

2016 Sept-Oct

Base metal prices settled at mixed levels during LME trading, with the overall trend a reflection of wider global market uncertainties and current sluggish sentiment; copper, aluminum and nickel struggles, carrying over poor performance. Nickel could rise, but lags with consolidation overdue. Ong

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METALS DIP ON COCKTAIL OF WORRIES

2016 Jul-Aug

Base metal prices fell during premarket trading, matching investor profit-taking trends in wider financial and equity markets, which primarily affect Western central banks. However, Chinese authorities are concerned about possible slowing in EU economic growth.



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THE REAL PAIN IS DUE IN 2017

2016 May-Jun

Base metals in Q2 is expected to retract after a momentum in Q1. In both the quarters fundamentals remain the same while dollar fluctuations and investors’ appetite in the Chinese economy rallies or slopes the base metal prices. Generally, across the board, fundamentals

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Is it the bottom?

2016 Mar-Apr

Q1 has seen cuts in production but not enough to recover the prices. YTD has seen prices falling due to complex economic slowdown and very little production cuts. There aren’t significant cuts to stabilise the market in 2016.



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Time to think beyond oil?

2016 Jan-Feb

Metals prices will remain depressed in 2016. Persevering oversupply of metals and uncertain demand in China will keep prices in 2016 under pressure. Despite declining prices, miners add to the volumes of supply and are still not ready to reduce their market share.



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Metal headlines are again dominated by plunging oil prices

2015 Nov-Dec

Stronger USD and weak oil prices remarkably put all metals under pressure. The bad news is prices have reached multiyear lows but good news is once oil reaches 30USD the bottoming is over then.



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Economic headwinds intensify while base metals prices slide

2015 Sep-Oct

Slowing factory activity in China, Europe and USA have underpinned the investors’ concern for global slowdown. September was a little relief for base metals by finishing flat, though strangely ignoring economic numbers from China. Zinc slid partly due to rumours about Gl

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Base metals hits multi-year low

2015 Jul-Aug

July witnessed aluminium and copper hit a multi-year, with lead and zinc trading at multi-month low. On the other hand nickel and tin were in a better position due to strong fundamentals. Among non ferrous, both steel and iron sank into no demand position.



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LME down as investors sentiment weighs on prices

2015 May-Jun

Nonferrous seems more exposed to USD and broader negative market sentiment. Copper demand has slowed down significantly YOY while production at Chilean still maintains a healthy output.



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Who is afraid of lower oil?

2015 Jan-Feb

Base metals performance was dragged down by stronger US dollar and drop in oil prices. After its peak in 2014 on June 19, oil prices started to spiral downward which accelerated base metal downfall significantly. Base metals are dependent on oil primarily for two reasons.



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Base Metals Decline on Deflation Concerns

2014 Nov-Dec

Commodities in general lost ground on continued strengthening dollar and drastic decline in oil. Copper crumbled to eight-month low with other base metals ending lower on month to month average. The ferrous complex similarly weakened. Likewise, precious metals also declined but managed to be rela

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LMEX hits 24-month low, more agony ahead

2014 Sep-Oct

Expanding commodities oversupply backed by slowing global economies worsens the Bloomberg Commodity Index to the lowest since 2009 last quarter. Weak economic numbers from China and Europe coupled with the surging dollar, led LME metals group to a 24-month low. Among the major base metals, copper

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Further gains, more divergence

2014 Jul-Aug

Non ferrous metal performed well in July thanks to the better than expected global macro numbers, tightening demand/supply and diminishing qualms about Chinese financing scams. On the other hand, non-ferrous prices continued to plunge even though monthly falloff was more controlled



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Demand still slow with less promising upside

2014 May-June

Though metals drew little comfort from Chinese policy action, apart from aluminium and nickel other base metals resumed divergence. Aluminium and nickel are most exposed to harsh sanctions on Russia is more chance than cause...



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Demand still slow with less promising upside

2014 Mar-Apr

Though metals drew little comfort from Chinese policy action, apart from aluminium and nickel other base metals resumed divergence. Aluminium and nickel are most exposed to harsh sanctions on Russia is more chance than cause. Fundamentally, LME stock inventories have decreased across the board wi

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